After the summer holidays, we find
ourselves with two worrying news items in the panorama of
the European economy.
On one hand, we continue
with the weakness of the currency of the European circle and
also the increasing cost of oil. The euro seems to be losing
credibility with the European Union. The new currency adopted
by eleven countries of the European Union continues to lose
value with each passing day againsta the other two strong
currencies in the world: the dollar and the yen. In a little
over a year and a half, i has lost 26% of its value with respect
to the dollar and 30% with respect to the yen. Additionally,
it has lost 12.5% with respct to the British Sterling.
The European Countries
thought that the Euro was going to be a competitor to the
other 2 global currencies (the dollar and the yen). However,
the reality has been different.
Those who have bet on
the Americans currency have had great profits last year as
well as in the current year. The Americans have found a magnificent
form of financing in the markets of European capital, with
lower interest rates and when the capital of the loan is paid
back in Euros, they also benefit because they pay fewer euros.
The European countries
have to take measures to recuperate the strength of the euro.
The American economy is more attractive for investing than
is the European economy. The principal advantage of the loss
of value of the euro is that it facilitates exportation, but
in the other hand, it makes importation more expensive. Additionally,
in the long run, a weak currency implies a constat loss of
purchase power of the Europeans against those outside of the
Union. The Central European Bank has 2 tactics which they
can take: buying euros, raising interest rates of a combination
of both. The economy of the Canaries is also related to the
British currency. The pound is very strong. This suits the
investment of British tourism in the Canaries but it is unknown
what is going to happen in the future with the countries that
are not within the euro. That is, England, Sweeden and Denmark.
Oil is also worrying the
western economies. The price of a barrel surpassed 30 dollars.
The oil on top of this price will reach a half point more
of inflaction for the Spanish economy, a minimum increase
of one point in interest rates, and a reduction in the projected
growth of the GDP this year. It could also have negative effects
on investments, salaries and employment.
The producing countries
have the western countries concerned as they face the negative
expectations that the cost of oil will continue to rise.
For the Canarian economy,
evidently everything has its repercusions. The cost of expensiveoil
signifies a rise in the price of air travel. If one adds to
this the economic problems of the countries that send us tourists,
we can be assured that the future will not be rosy.
The European countries
need to reflect upon these two important economic issues (the
euro and oil), because the combination of a weak euro and
expensive oil could cause significant, long-term economic
problems.
The solution that the
Central European Bank has had of raising the interest rates
does not seem to have been magic solution to the problems
of the weakness of the euro. Europe is finding it difficult
to compete with the American economy that is currently more
competitive and attractive than the European economy. |