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The unstoppable strenght of China   July 2008
 
José Luis Hernández Socorro Curriculo
Accountant. Manager of Gestiones.com
 
China is the country with the largest population on the Earth: it is in the region of 1300 million inhabitants, which is equivalent to a third part of Asia’s population and a fifth of the world total. Nowadays the population’s growth is scarce: the fecundity rate is 1.8 children per woman. The main objective of this antinatalist policy has been accomplished, and it has been more moderate and permissive since 2002. Currently the growth rate of the Chinese population is 0.7%. The decrease in the birth number is due to the birth rate control during the last decades. The three quarter parts of the population live in the countryside, therefore it is an especially rural country.

The Chinese economy increased 11.4% in 2007, three tenths more than in 2006, over 10% during five years uninterruptedly, and the highest one in the last fourteen years, reason why it holds the fourth post in the world. In a few decades China will become the first world economic power. As an example, in August 2007 it managed, for the first time, to export more than any other country in the world. So China is behind the U.S.A., Japan and almost reaching Germany.

Such an amazing economic growth of China has raised its per capita income much, thus providing the population of the People’s Republic of China with more wellbeing. But the meteoric development of the Chinese economy has not been free from a high social and environmental cost for the country. There is a lot of talk about China and its inhabitants, but a little about the small percentage that has enough money to eat meat, quality oil and farinaceous products. The vast majority (perhaps 1000 million) are the ones who usually live on rice and vegetables.

The government’s main competitive strategy to attract foreign investment has been to offer fiscal incentive packages and an extremely lax regulating framework pertaining to labour rights and environmental protection, which together with the low cost of initial investment and manpower has turned the Asian nation into the first worldwide destination of direct foreign investment. Attracted by the low cost of salaries and the workers’ submissiveness, international companies moved increasingly their production lines to China (“the workshop of the world”). On its turn, Chinese companies began to establish themselves outside the national boundaries. The most outstanding case has been the acquisition of the computer division of the North American company IBM on part of Lenovo Chinese enterprise. However, this development is not free from trouble. In 2007 China became the biggest emitter of gases contributing to the greenhouse effect, thus getting past the United States (in per capita terms, still around a third). It will exceed the United States’ CO2 emissions in a decade, and it has the doubtful honour of housing sixteen out of the twenty most polluted cities in the world.

From the tourist viewpoint, China will keep its unstoppable advance in the list of the favourite international tourist destinations and will occupy the third place in 2008. The favourite tourist destination continues to be France, followed by Spain and the United States. In 2006 United States received 51.1 million tourists, only slightly ahead of China, with 49.6 million.

If China maintains its economic rhythm, it will turn into the biggest worldwide economy in twenty years, getting past United States. If the Chinese growth continues, its consumption market will be the second one in the world by 2015. Chinese already consume 32% of all the rice which is produced in the world, use 47% of the cement to build and smoke one of every three cigarettes.

Regarding the present year 2008, the Chinese Prime Minister said that this will be “the most complicated year for the Chinese economy”. The uncertainty in the international markets, the business sector bad results and a sky-high inflation are taking their toll on the Chinese market and economy.

To all this an increasingly weaker real-estate market adds up, and the point is that the international real-estate problems have not left China untouched.

In conclusion, it will be the first world power in few years, with more influence on import and export. Therefore, it is to be taken into account that English will not be the leading language anymore, and Chinese will have to be taught in Western schools as the language of the future.

 
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