Nowadays it seems impossible to predict what is going to happen next week. Because of this, we don’t know what will happen in 2009. As a result of consolidation and natural selection, one could speculate that there will be new injections of capital and a final restructuring of the bank system toward the end of 2009. This would be an opportunity for the creation of new companies.

We must keep in mind that people's confidence in the system has been damaged and this will take a long time to rebuild. Right now we are experiencing a phenomenon that has a major psychological element. We are living in the midst of a self-feeding downward spiral that is the heart of the economic problems we are going through.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has decreased, once again, its economic forecast for Spain. This international organization believes that the economy will decrease "at least 1% in 2009" in spite of the drop in oil prices and the decrease of the Euribor.

According to the IMF, Zapatero's government policy lacks a crucial job market reform. The IMF is asking to eliminate the wage adjustment that was made following inflation, which caused prices to increase. Experts also recommend that there be layoffs.

Worries arise when looking at the unemployment rate predicted by the IMF in our country. If at the close of 2008, the rate was 11.3%, in 2009 it could increase to 14.7%, which is by far the highest rate among the rest of the European Union countries. The IMF insists that although the economic slowdown has just began, in Spain the unemployment rate has already affected many unskilled workers, particularly the immigrants.

The IMF also talks about the collapsed real-estate market. According to them, the adjustment in this sector "will take a long time". The IMF agrees with the aid that the Government approved, helping unemployed people pay their mortgages, but it criticizes the building of state subsidized housing because according to the IMF, such housing makes the house stock increase causing prices to decrease even more. The real-estate market is at the origin of this situation in Spain, Ireland and the United Kingdom. Both the owners of the houses and the companies operating in this sector are suffering the scourge from the lack of credit. Additionally, we should mention the decrease in housing prices in such countries.

According to the IMF there is only one positive aspect for year 2009, which is the bank sector. This entity praises the regulations introduced in Spain and the "conservative" management of the resources by the financial institutions. On the other hand, OECD (Organization for the Economic Cooperation and Development) predicts that the Spanish economy will have grown 1.3% in 2008 but will decrease 0.9% in 2009. This organization also states that our economy will increase again 0.8% in 2010.

From the tourism point of view and regarding British tourism, which is the economic strength of the Canaries and Spain, the Exchange rate has decreased from 1.30 Euros per sterling pound to only 1.08 per sterling pound, which is generating problems such as the decrease in British tourism overall. In Spain, where many British used to come for a very cheap holiday package thanks to the former exchange rate, British tourism is experiencing a relevant decrease. The pound exchange rate is getting closer, for the first time, to the euro. This is harming thousands of British citizens living abroad as their pensions and savings are being devalued. Some experts from the City of London are afraid that the pound may even decrease to below the euro and some of them think that the British Government should adopt the euro to avoid such decrease.

If the economic measures of the European governments fail to lead money to the companies, meaning that the Banks give credit to the companies that need it, the situation will inevitably get worse. Some pessimists do not see the end to this crisis, but there is still hope. If the implemented measures work, the economies could be relaunched in the second half of 2009.

Finally, it is expected that in an attempt to oxygenate the economies of European countries, the European Central Bank will lower the interest rates again, this time below 2.5% following the decision of the Federal Reserve of the USA.